The City Veins

Now that we are close to the end of this seemingly endless primary season, I should be happy. Barack Obama, the candidate I voted for and for a while fervently supported, will be the Democratic nominee. Hillary Clinton, the real life Tracy Flick, appears to have gotten a well-needed dose of humility, and all seems right with the world.

Except it’s not.

Most Democrats are too self-delusional, culturally isolated, or just plain weak enough to say it, so allow me: President John McCain. Get used to hearing it - you’ll be hearing for the next 4 years.

I wish I was kidding, or just trying to be controversial for its own sake.  But I’m not. I honestly believe that, barring certain extenuating circumstances, John McCain is the next president of the U.S. because of Barack Obama’s nomination.

The promise of the Obama candidacy was one I still believe in: a politics that, in his words, “builds the nation up without tearing each other down.”  He called for Republicans and Democrats to come together and stop the vicious, nasty politics of the last 20 years in order to solve our most pressing issues. I still agree with him on that front. However, I no longer believe Obama is the person who can bring about that change.  Back in January and February, the country was getting real excited about him, on both sides of the fence, because they believed in this notion too.  Here, it seemed, was the guy who could bring an end to that, a charismatic guy that most everyone can get behind.

But along the way Obama lost the narrative and let Republicans define his campaign.  Not wearing a flag pin; Michelle’s poor choice of words; and of course, Jeremiah Wright.  Game over.  All those inaccurate rumors of being a Muslim and the whisperings about his middle name, which before had been renounced as despicable racism spread by the radical right, began to gain credence with mainstream America.  All of a sudden, “change” didn’t look so appealing.

Yes, these are all oversimplifications of nuanced matters.  But that’s politics, and in that sense (and I never thought I’d ever say this) Hillary is right.  You cannot beat Republicans without fighting - period.  Look at 2004 - John Kerry was a war hero, one who was given wealth and privilege growing up and chose to fight in the military anyway.  He was up against a president who started an unnecessary war, never fought in combat himself, and was running the economy into the ground.  That election was won on straight Republican fear-mongering and name-calling.  I know this firsthand; I worked for the company doing the exit polls that year and saw all the poll results of how people voted and why they voted that way.  Republicans use fear-mongering because it works (rent the documentary So Goes the Nation and hear them say it themselves).

Obama may be relatively inexperienced on the national stage, but he’s 46 years old and a U.S. Senator - he should know how the game is played.  You can’t have a Jeremiah Wright in your closet.  You can’t get caught up in an academic debate over the patriotism of wearing a flag pin.  Yes, wearing a pin is a cheap substitute for real patriotism, and yes, wearing a flag pin is no more than base pandering, BUT we are talking about presidential politics - PANDERING WORKS.  Don’t start an academic debate; the fact is most Americans don’t have the time to sit down and think about your nuanced arguments, and it just makes you look elitist and out of touch.  You have to get elected first, then you can win hearts and minds.

If you want to be president, and most especially if you want to be a new kind of president, you had better handle things like this early.  Obama did not, and the result is that in key battleground states needed for the election, Hillary would do better against McCain than Obama would (see for yourself on RealClearPolitics.com).  She makes a very legitimate case that she’d be the better nominee right now.  I think Obama had a little too much Obamania in his mind and not enough focus, and while he’ll win the nomination because of it, I find it hard to believe that he’s going to win the election.

His only prayer now, in my view, is to team with Hillary.  After all, he fashions himself to be the next JFK, but even JFK needed LBJ to win.